How New Colorado River Water Rules Will Affect the U.S. West After 2026

The federal government is set to announce upcoming water cuts that will impact the approximately 40 million people who rely on the Colorado River, a critical water source for the U.S. West. The Department of the Interior typically releases water availability forecasts months in advance to allow Western cities, farmers, and other stakeholders to plan accordingly.

Behind the scenes, however, intricate negotiations are underway to determine how the Colorado River’s diminishing water supply will be allocated after 2026, when current guidelines expire.

The Colorado River serves seven Western states—Arizona, Nevada, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming—as well as over two dozen Native American tribes and two states in Mexico. It is crucial for irrigating millions of acres of farmland and generating hydropower across the region. Due to years of overuse, rising temperatures, and ongoing drought, the river’s flow has significantly decreased compared to previous decades.

Key Negotiations and Challenges

Current Discussions: The primary focus of current discussions is how to manage the river’s water distribution after 2026. Existing agreements, court rulings, and contracts that govern the river’s use are set to expire at the end of 2025. In 2007, the seven U.S. states and the federal government established rules to address lower water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the river’s main reservoirs. These rules dictate water cuts based on Lake Mead’s levels, prompting states, tribes, and other stakeholders to draft new plans for even deeper cuts after 2026.

Jack Schmidt, a professor of watershed sciences at Utah State University, highlights the urgency of these negotiations: “The ultimate problem is that watershed runoff is decreasing due to an ever-warming climate. The proximate problem is we’ve got to decrease our use.”

Upcoming Water Cuts: In addition to long-term negotiations, the federal government will announce water cuts for 2025 this month, based on Lake Mead’s levels. These cuts might continue current restrictions. The Bureau of Reclamation uses factors like precipitation, runoff, and water use to model future reservoir levels. If Lake Mead drops below certain thresholds, Arizona, California, Nevada, and Mexico may face cuts, though California has largely avoided reductions due to its senior water rights.

Conservation Efforts: Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico experienced water cuts from the Colorado River in 2022, with reductions deepening in 2023 but returning to 2022 levels this year. To address the crisis, Arizona, California, and Nevada agreed to conserve an additional 3 million acre-feet of water until 2026, with federal funding assisting in these efforts. The Upper Basin states—Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming—receive a percentage of the available water each year, though they do not fully use their 7.5 million acre-foot allocation.

Effectiveness of Conservation Efforts: Recent conservation measures and a wet 2023 have improved short-term reservoir levels, with Lake Powell at about 39% capacity and Lake Mead at around 33%. However, climate scientists like Brad Udall caution that higher temperatures and reduced runoff will continue to challenge water availability. “I would push back heartily against any idea that our rebound over the last couple of years is some permanent shift,” Udall warns.

Ongoing Disagreements: The central issue remains how to manage the river after 2026. Recent proposals from the Upper and Lower Basin states, tribes, and environmental groups have diverged. Arizona, California, and Nevada advocate for a broader view of the river’s management, considering water levels in all seven reservoirs and suggesting deeper cuts if the entire system’s capacity drops below 38%. In contrast, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming propose addressing shortages based on Lake Powell and Lake Mead’s combined capacity, advocating for more immediate reductions affecting California, Arizona, and Nevada.

Next Steps: The federal government is expected to release draft regulations by December, incorporating feedback from ongoing negotiations. Until then, states, tribes, and other stakeholders will continue to work towards a consensus on the river’s future management.

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